Overview

Trayce Jackson-Davis is an athletic Rim Finishing Big.   He is also an excellent rim protector and playmaker.  Defending in space needs to improve but Jackson-Davis more than makes up for it with weak side and rim protection. Does not space the floor at all.  A second round steal for the right team with the right fit.

NBA Skill:  Rim finishing and rim protection

Offense

Trayce Jackson-Davis’ is a classic rim running big.  He has solid foot speed and plays with the required physicality for today’s NBA bigs. A lefty, Jackson-Davis is very left-handed.  His go-to is the right shoulder jump hook or drop step. He is great at early hunting transition mismatches and burying them under the rim for easy buckets.  Solid instincts with cuts and off ball movement.  Excellent in Pick and Roll.  Always looking mismatches but accepts the challenge to go directly at other bigs.  Knows exactly what he can and can not do.  Very efficient in all scoring categories when compared to previous draft bigs – he’s just not a floor spacer.  

Jackson-Davis’ touch beyond 5 feet needs development.  He will provide immediate value as rim finisher but will need to develop a mid range 10-15 footer to be effective against NBA bigs.  Davis does not shoot threes. Shooting mechanics (for now) and his free throw shooting signals Jackson-Davis will need a lot of work to expand that area of his game.  Despite all those offensive limitations, on the right team with the right role, he is capable of providing first round value to an NBA team.

Being a classic Rim Finishing Big, Jackson-Davis’ play types in college will not be his primary role in the NBA.   Although he is very efficient in all of his play types.  He will provide strongest value in Transition, Cuts and as a P/R Roller and on the offensive glass.  Very unlikely Jackson-Davis will get many posts up at the NBA level.

Assists and Decision Making

Jackson-Davis really shines in decision making.  He is an excellent Playmaking Big with a variety of advanced passes on his menu:  Transition touch passes, bounce passes, interior passes, one handed kick out passes and lobs.   While his turnovers are a big high, they come primarily from being too aggressive on rim attacks.  Personal fouls are above average.

Rebounding and Defense

Trayce Jackson-Davis is a beast on the boards.  Offensive and defensive rebounding will be the main value-add of Jackson-Davis. Unlike other heavy footed bigs he is solid in P/R defense, although he will need development to defend in space.  In drop coverage he is solid and makes good reads.   When combined with his elite rim protection, Jackson-Davis is poised to bring a lot of immediate value, especially if drafted in the mid to low second round. 

Overview:

Trayce Jackson-Davis is a classic lefty Power Forward.  Powerful and explosive, Jackson-Davis is a low post threat who will also clean the glass and protect the rim.  Needs to space the floor to increase his value at the NBA level despite his positional size and athleticism.  2023-23 will be Jackson-Davis’ senior year for the Indiana Hoosiers.   

NBA skill:  Rebounding and rim protection

Note:  Prospects compared to statistical averages of drafted NBA players (2017-2022), by position, from their last college season.

Guards = Below 6’5″

Wings = 6’6″ to 6’9″

Posts = Above 6’10”

Blue      Comparable to average drafted NBA players by position.

Green  Exceeds the average drafted NBA players by position.

Red      Below the average of drafted NBA players by position.

Darker color signifies a greater statistical variance.

Offense:

Trayce Jackson-Davis is a classic Power Forward.  Jackson-Davis is a high efficiency scorer with 58 / –- / 67 splits. He is a reliable low post threat, rim runner and rim protector.  His scoring metrics are in line or better than previously drafted Post players.  However, his low perimeter shooter shooting will need to be dramatically improved if he is going to be a viable NBA player. 

Jackson-Davis’ Shot Mix is 49% Post ups 1.04 Points Per Play, Very Good.   45% At the Rim, 1.3 PPP, Very Good.  These two shot types account for 94% of Jackson-Davis’ scoring.   

Digging deeper, Jackson-Davis’ Play Types shows he is effective close to the rim. 

Post Ups 45%, 1.2 PPP, Very Good

Cuts   15%, 1.2 PPP, Very Good 

Pick and Roll Roller 10%, 1.5 PPP,  Excellent

Oboards 10%, 1.1 PPP, Very Good.

These Play Types account for 80% of Jackson-Davis’ scoring but they only account for 22% of the Play Types, on average, of all 30 NBA teams.  Jackson-Davis is very good in areas the NBA deemphasizes.  This is the dilemma of star college post players, like Jackson-Davis.  In previous decades he would be a lottery pick. In today’s NBA, to be a valuable player, at his size, he has to either be a defensive juggernaut or have sublime offensive skill. 

Wanna sees:

Improved face up mid range shooting

Improved free throw shooting

Assists and Decision Making

Jackson-Davis is a high IQ passing big man that makes advanced big man passes; interior dump offs, weak side kick outs in addition to basic swing passes. He averaged 1.9 assists per game which is slightly higher that most previously drafted Post players. His AST/TOV ratio as a result is higher than average as well.  This bodes well for Jackson-Davis who will have to show versatility on the offensive end to bring value to an NBA team.  

Wanna See

Continued playmaking from the Post position

Better spatial awareness of helpside double teams

Rebounding and defense

Jackson-Davis is a solid rebounding post player.  He comes away with tough rebounds in traffic.

Defensively, Jackson-Davis is a fabulous rim protector, averaging 2.3 blocks per game.  While his steals are a little low, it is in line with previously drafted NBA posts.  Jackson-Davis’ 9.6 Combo (STL% + BLK%) is over the 8.4 average. 

Wanna see

Increase in rebounding

Increase in steals

Continued stalwart rim protection

Tier of 2023 draft prediction: Second round