Signature game of 2022-23: UAB vs Georgia

October 6, 2022. Overview:

Eric Gaines is an explosive and crafty combo guard.  He is also a tenacious and disruptive defender.  Small stature is a concern for success at the NBA level.  Although he’s also a highly inefficient shooter, a different role in a less competitive conference (Conference USA) will give him greater opportunities to lead.  Gaines transferred from LSU after the coach was fired.  2022-23 will be Gaines’ junior season for the UAB Dragons. 

NBA level skill:  Athleticism, toughness 

Note:  Prospects compared to statistical averages of drafted NBA players (2017-2022), by position, from their last college season.

Guards = Below 6’5″

Wings = 6’6″ to 6’9″

Posts = Above 6’10”

Blue      Comparable to average drafted NBA players by position.

Green  Exceeds the average drafted NBA players by position.

Red      Below the average of drafted NBA players by position.

Darker color signifies a greater statistical variance.

Offense:  

Gaines’ explosiveness is electrifying.  He will drive down the lane and dunk on your bigs if given the opportunity.  He is also crafty with shot fakes that opens up baseline drives.  But its production is what wins games not highlights.  Gaines’ shooting efficiency needs to improve if he is to become a viable NBA asset.  

Gaines is a full 40 lbs lighter than the average drafted NBA guard.  He will certainly need to add mass onto his frame to be able to hold his own in defending isolation, hand off, and pick and roll Play Types at the NBA level.  

Gaines has a solid shooting stroke and a high release.  His footwork is inconsistent and he has a lot of sway in the balance.  He shoots just 25% from three which will only get harder with the added NBA distance of 23’9” over the college distance of 22’ 1.75”.  What bodes well for Gaines is his free throw shooting is 79%.  

Digging deeper into Gaines’ shot mix it can be seen he is below average (among college peers) at jump shooting, scoring at the rim and runners.  

Gaines’ toughness is seen in his ability to get to the free throw line while he doesn’t make the attempts, his FTr (free throw rate) as a percentage of his scoring plays is 49%, 15% higher than drafted NBA guards at 34%.

Wanna Sees:

Increased 3PT shooting efficiency

Increased efficiency at the rim and runners

Add soft touch finishes

Assists and Decision Making

Gaines is a first combo guard.  At the next level he will likely be more of a playmaker so his assists number for the next level are low.  He will also need to decrease his turnovers.  He does not get called for a lot of offensive fouls which is usually a sign of playing out of control AND wrongfully identifying opportunities on the floor.  This will improve with more game experience and watching game video.  Gaines has the quickness to attack the paint and make plays for others but has yet to develop that aspect of his game.  Personal fouls are a bit high but not a concern.

Wanna see:

More advanced passing:  Touch passes, drive and kicks to the weak side, transition.

Improved efficiency in pick and roll making the right decisions

Rebounding and defense

Gaines is a solid offensive rebounder, but tends to leak out on the defensive end.  Rebounding is not a primary responsibility for guards but increasing rebounding contributing to winning basketball games.  Gaines’ ORBs is solid, especially for a small guard.

Defense Gaines is a truly disruptive defender.  Averaging 2.1 steals per game and .5 blocks per game is significantly better than most drafted guards.  His 6.8% Combo (STLr + BLKr) are almost twice the NBA draftee average for guards.  The Combo stat has been a leading indicator of transferable athleticism for drafted NBA players. 

Projected 2023 NBA Draft projection: Late First Round