How 6 previous NBA drafts can predict 2023?

At its core, the NBA draft is about prognostication.  

 It’s difficult to predict a player’s future success in the NBA based on their college or international performance. 

It’s not an exact science.  

Making a draft selection that turns out to be productive includes many factors for consideration; positional size, shooting efficiency, competitiveness, decision making on and off the court, work ethic, positional skill, statistical performance, and many more.  Add other considerations are team specific needs, team specific priorities and measurables, fit, and the timetable with other core players.  

 Getting it right is not an exact science.  

To smooth out the variances, at least in statistical performance,  we aggregated the stats from the last college season played for NBA players drafted in the between 2017 to 2022.

Our reasoning?  

If you want to know what NBA team decision makers value?  

Watch who they draft over time.  Then watch how those players performed.  

The players selected in the top twenty will become productive NBA players.  The way to separate good from great NBA decision makers is can they find productive players late in the first round or in the entire second round?

The database

We created a database (readily available many places) of the final college season of drafted NBA players from 2017 to 2022.  We made three groups of drafted players. 

Guards: 6’5” and below.  105 players 

Wings:  6’6” to 6’9” 126 players

Posts:   6’10” and above   63 players

We averaged the basic stats and advanced stats of the Guards, Wings and Posts, respectively. 

64 international and G-League players of all positions were not included due to variances in the number of games played, stat availability, among other variances.

As you review the differences between drafted NBA guards, wings and posts you will notice the equilibrium of a basketball team. Guards will have more assists and scoring while Posts will have more rebounds and blocks.

Application

We then directly compare these positional stats to 2023 draft prospects.  We color code the comparison for easy at-a-glance reference. 

It is our hope that your knowledge of the game will grow as a result of understanding what NBA General Managers and scouts value when evaluating college prospects.

Until next time

Damon A. Burris